新冠疫情与中美第一阶段协议叠加背景下中国农产品进口:外生冲击与合理应对

Study on China's Agricultural Import under the Context of COVID-19 Pandemic Superimposed the Sino-US Economic and Trade Agreement:Exogenous Impact and Reasonable Response

随着农产品进口依存度不断提高,贸易环境变动对我国农产品进口以及粮食安全的影响与冲击将愈加明显。新冠疫情全球大流行对我国不同农产品短期和较长时期的供需形势及进口需求产生了不同程度的影响,特别是畜产品,国内供给的下降以及补偿性消费需求的增加将在较长时间内推动其进口需求持续增长;与此同时,中美第一阶段协议的履行不仅会在短期内大幅提高中国自美农产品进口的金额与份额,同时还会因部分品种进口市场准入政策的调整,在长期将会改变中国农产品自美进口以及总进口的品种结构。在疫情与中美第一阶段协议叠加的双重背景下,大量增加从美国进口猪肉、牛肉以及大豆等品种,既满足经济合理性,又顺应了现实需求,可能成为中国未来农产品进口的合理选择,并将推动我国农产品进口格局发生较大转变。面对当前复杂的国际贸易环境,我国应积极地通过增强国内农产品供应保障能力、有策略地落实中美经贸协议、继续推进农产品进口多元化战略、建立进口与国内产业安全的预警体系以及提升参与全球粮食安全治理能力等途径,化被动为主动,在粮食安全双循环格局下保障农产品进口安全。

With the increasing dependence on the import of agricultural products,the impact of trade environment changes on China’s agricultural products import and food security will be more obvious.The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic will have different effects on the supply,demand and import demand of different agricultural products in China from short-term and long-term perspectives,especially for livestock products,the decrease of their supply and the increase of compensatory demand from consumers will promote their long-term import demand.The implementation of the first phase of Sino-US Economic and Trade Agreement(SUETA)will not only significantly enhance China’s agricultural imports from the United States in the short term.In addition,due to the adjustment of market access policies involved in the import of some varieties,the variety structure of China’s import from the United States and its total import will be changed for a long time.Under the dual background,China’s massive import of pork,beef and soybean from the United States will not only meet the economic rationality,but also conform to the actual demand,which may become a reasonable choice for China’s future agricultural products import,and will promote a great change in China’s agricultural products import pattern.In the face of the current complex international trade environment,China should actively change from passive to active in the"dual circulations"of food security by enhancing the supply guarantee ability of domestic agricultural products,strategically implementing the Sino-US Economic and Trade Agreement,continuing to promote the diversification strategy of agricultural products import,establishing the early warning system of import and domestic industrial security,and enhancing the ability to participate in the governance of global food security.