长株潭城市群养老产业发展环境评价研究

Research on the Environmental Evaluation of the Development of the Elderly Care Industry in Chang-Zhu-Tan City Group

为发挥城市群的引领作用,带动湖南省养老产业的发展,构建自然环境、社会环境、人口环境、政策环境、经济环境5个维度的养老康养发展环境评估体系,采用熵权TOPSIS分析法研判2008-2018年长株潭城市群养老康养发展的时空演变特征。研究表明:自然环境、社会环境及经济环境是推动长株潭城市群养老产业发展的主要动力,政策环境与人口环境是后续力量;长沙处于稳步增长状态,株洲呈良好的发展态势,但缺乏后劲,后期呈现"M"型发展趋势,湘潭各方面的发展较为均衡;长株潭城市群养老机构集中分布在城市群的主城区,形成"U"型分布,长沙市以岳麓区为核心区由内向外不断递减,株洲市围绕三个直辖区分布形成高密度区,湘潭市与韶山市呈现团块状分布。

This article constructs the environmental assessment system of the five dimensions of natural environment,social environment,population environment,policy environment and economic environment,and uses the analysis of entropy right TOPSIS to study the time and space evolution characteristics of the development of old-age health care in Changzhutan city group from 2008 to 2018,with the aim of giving play to the leading role of urban agglomeration and drive the development of elderly care industry in Hunan Province.The research shows that:(1)On the whole,the natural environment,social environment and economic environment are the main driving forces to promote the development of the old-age industry in Changzhutan city group,and the policy environment and population environment are the follow-up forces.(2)From the point of view of time,Changsha is in a steady growth state,Zhuzhou shows a good development trend,but lack of momentum,the late presentation of"M"-type development trend,Xiangtan in all aspects of the development is more balanced.The elderly care institutions of Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration are concentrated in the main urban area of the urban agglomeration,forming a"U"distribution.Changsha takes Yuelu District as the core area,decreasing from inside to outside.Zhuzhou City forms a high-density area around three directly under the central government,and Xiangtan City and Shaoshan City show a group distribution.