基于GRA-TSM的新疆公路交通运输需求预测分析

Demand Forecast Analysis of Xinjiang Highway Transportation Based on GRA-TSM

为了准确预测地区公路交通运输需求,甄别公路交通发展中的影响因素,以新疆维吾尔自治区为研究对象进行预测分析。利用灰色关联分析法(GRA),选取表征公路交通运输水平的适宜指标,对影响指标进行筛选;采用时间序列法(TSM)对各指标的发展趋势进行预测;结合多元回归算法对各指标预测特征进行总结分析。结果表明:在未来发展中,应注重将客运及客运周转量作为公路发展的首要任务;公路线路的修建可对运输需求的增长提供保障,促进交通与地区经济协调发展。

In order to accurately forecast the demand for the highway transportation in the area and identify the influencing factors in the development of road transportation,the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is taken as the research object for the prediction analysis.First,select appropriate indicators that characterize the level of highway transportation,and use the grey correlation algorithm(GRA)to screen the impact indicators;secondly,use the time series method(TSM)to forecast the development trend of each index;finally,combined with the multiple regression algorithm,the forecast characteristics of each index are summarized and analyzed.The results show that in the future development,focusing on passenger transport and its turnover is the primary task,and the construction of highway routes can guarantee the growth of transportation demand and promote the cooperation of transportation and regional economy.