1960-2015年河南省小麦气候生产潜力估算及种植空间优化

Estimation of Wheat Climatic Production Potential and Optimization of Planting Space in Henan Province During 1960-2015

根据河南省1960-2015年太阳辐射、气温和降水数据,通过逐步订正法估算河南省小麦气候生产潜力,并据此提出小麦种植空间优化方案.结果表明:在全球气候变化背景下,受气温和降水双因素驱动,1960-2015年河南省小麦气候生产潜力呈W型的波动变化趋势,小麦气候生产优势潜力区在2000年开始向豫西南移动,速度逐步减缓;河南省小麦优势气候生产潜力区与现状优势种植区的重合度为64.5%,较弱潜力区与较弱种植区重合度高达81.5%,但其他类型区重合度较低;最后基于气候生产潜力变化,将小麦种植规模分为适当增加、适当减少、保持现状三种类型,引导小麦种植空间优化,对有效保障粮食安全具有重要意义.

According to the data of solar radiation,temperature and precipitation of Henan province from 1960 to 2015,the gradual correction method was used to estimate the climatic production potential of wheat in Henan province,and then the wheat planting space optimization plan was proposed.The results showed that:under the trend of global climate change,driven by the two factors of temperature and precipitation,the wheat climatic production potential of Henan province from 1960 to 2015 showed a W-type dynamic change.After 2000,the advantage potential area of wheat climatic production moved to southwestern Henan,but the speed gradually slowed down;the coincidence of the dominant climatic production potential area of wheat in Henan province and the current dominant planting area was 64.5%,and that of the weaker potential area and the weaker planting area was as high as 81.5%,but other types of potential areas coincide with the planting status was relatively low.Finally,based on the change of climate potential productivity,three types of wheat planting space optimization were divided into appropriate increase of wheat planting scale,appropriate decrease of wheat planting scale and maintenance of the current situation,which was of great significance to effectively guarantee food security.