防止返贫动态监测和精准帮扶的着力点——基于CFPS数据的实证分析

The Focus of Dynamic Monitoring and Accurate Assistance to Prevent Poverty-Returning——An Empirical Analysis Based on CFPS Data

脱贫摘帽不是终点,而是新生活、新奋斗的起点,巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果必须要重视摆脱绝对贫困后可能的返贫问题。本文立足于2020年后中国防止返贫动态监测和精准帮扶的现实需要,采集2010-2018年CFPS的五轮调查数据,通过反推VEP法测算脆弱线来甄别确定中国农村返贫治理的瞄准对象,然后依托有序Logit模型揭示瞄准状态动态变换的根本诱因。结果发现:(1)经过不同临界值比较并参照已有的返贫监测标准发现,2018年33%贫困脆弱性水平对应的5151元脆弱线是甄别瞄准对象和非瞄准对象的合适标准。在这一标准下,瞄准对象占比在分析区间内有所下降,且瞄准对象和非瞄准对象的动态变换较快,摆脱返贫风险和陷入返贫风险同时存在。(2)人力资本和物质资本因素有利于家庭摆脱瞄准状态,依赖于政府补助和省级财政转移支付的家庭容易持续处于瞄准状态,不同规模和年龄的家庭具有明显的异质性。上述结论对"十四五"期间健全防止返贫动态监测机制和找准精准帮扶的着力点具有重要的指导意义。

Eliminating absolute poverty is the beginning for our pursuit of a new life.To consolidate and expand the achievements of poverty reduction,we must attach importance to the problem of possible return to poverty after eradicating absolute poverty.Based on the actual need of China dynamic monitoring and accurate assistance to prevent re-poverty after 2020,this paper collects five rounds of micro-survey data from 2010 to 2018 provided by China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),distinguishes the targeted objects of re-poverty governance in rural China based on vulnerability line measured by the inverse VEP method.Moreover,the ordered Logit model we rely on reveals the fundamental causes of the dynamic change of targeting state.The results indicate that:(1)The 5151 yuan vulnerability line corresponding to the 33%vulnerability level in 2018 is an appropriate standard for distinguishing targeted and non-targeted objects.Under this standard,the proportion of targeted objects has declined during 2010-2018,and the dynamic change between targeted and non-targeted objects is relatively fast,getting rid of poverty and falling into poverty exist at the same time.(2)The factors of human capital and material capital are helpful for families to be out of the target state,while families relying on government subsidies and provincial fiscal transfer payments are likely to continue to be in the target state.Families of different sizes and ages have obvious heterogeneity.The above conclusions have important guiding significance for the establishment of dynamic monitoring and accurate assistance to prevent re-poverty during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period.