经济政策不确定性研究进展评述

A Literature Review on Economic Policy Uncertainty

经济政策不确定性是影响宏观经济运行及微观经济主体行为的关键因素,深入研究经济政策不确定性的测度方法及其对不同主体的影响机制和渠道,有利于完善对政策和预期的管理。本文梳理了经济政策不确定性相关研究文献,对经济政策不确定性指数构建方法进行了比较分析,尤其就指数的中国适用性调整进行重点探究。在此基础上提炼总结了经济政策不确定性对宏观经济运行、企业决策和居民行为的影响。最后,本文指出了该领域研究的局限性,并对未来的研究方向进行了展望。

Economic policy uncertainty is a key factor affecting macroeconomic operation and the behavior of microeconomic subjects.An in-depth study of the measurement methods of economic policy uncertainty and its impact mechanism and channels on different subjects is conducive to improving the management of policies and expectations.This paper systematically reviews the relevant research on economic policy uncertainty,and makes a comparative analysis of the construction methods of economic policy uncertainty index.This paper also reviews the impacts of economic policy uncertainty on macroeconomic operation,corporate behavior and residents’microeconomic decision-making.Finally,this paper points out the limitations of the research in this field,and looks forward to the future research direction.