东北地区城市可持续发展的时空格局演变分析

Spatiotemporal Pattern Evolution of Urban Sustainable Development Capacity in Northeast China

为综合测度东北地区城市可持续发展能力服务东北振兴战略,采用变异系数TOPSIS法、耦合协调度模型及ArcGIS技术等分析方法,通过构建城市可持续发展能力评价模型,从城市经济、社会、生态环境及综合维度对东北地区34个地级市城市可持续发展能力和耦合协调度时空演化过程和空间分析格局进行了研究。结果表明:(1)研究期间,总体上东北三省城市综合可持续发展能力整体较低,城市经济、社会和生态环境子系统可持续发展能力在不同时期呈现出不同的时空演化特征;(2)从空间分异视角来看,辽宁省内沈阳和大连的“双核”特征较为显著,吉林和黑龙江两省整体上“中心—外围”特征较为突出,总体上表现为沈阳、大连、长春和哈尔滨4大城市引领格局,空间分异特征较为显著;(3)34个地级市经济、社会和生态环境子系统整体耦合度较高,各城市子系统之间相互依赖性较高,但城市耦合协调度水平较低,较多城市面临衰退失调的困境。因此,提升城市可持续发展能力整体水平和城市间以及各城市子系统内部的协调发展是新时代东北全面振兴过程中城市发展的关键问题。

To comprehensively measure the urban sustainable development capacity in northeast China,serve the Northeast Revitalization Strategy,the coefficient of variation TOPSIS method,coupling coordination degree model and ArcGIS technology and other analytical methods were used to construct the urban sustainable development ability evaluation model to study the spatial-temporal evolution of sustainable development capacity and coupling-coordination process and spatial analysis pattern of 34 prefecture-level cities in northeast China from the urban economic,social,ecological environment and comprehensive dimensions.The results showed that:(1)during the study period,the overall urban sustainable development capacity in the three northeastern provinces was generally low,and the sustainable development capability of urban economic,social and ecological subsystems showed different spatiotemporal evolution characteristics in different periods;(2)from the perspective of spatial differentiation,the‘dual-core’characteristics of Shenyang and Dalian in Liaoning Province were relatively significant;the‘central-peripheral’characteristics of Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province were relatively prominent;in general,they were represented by the leading pattern of Shenyang,Dalian,Changchun and Harbin,with significant spatial differentiation characteristics;(3)the economic,social and ecological environment subsystems of 34 prefecture-level cities had a high degree of overall coupling,and the interdependence of subsystems in each city was relatively high,but the level of urban coupling-coordination was low,and many cities faced the dilemma of recession.Improving the overall level of urban sustainable development capability and the coordinated development within cities and sub-systems are the key issues for urban development in the process of comprehensive revitalization of the northeast China in the new era.