印度融入美国“印太战略”新动向:驱动因素与局限性

India’s Involvement in the U.S.“Indo-Pacific Strategy”:Drivers and Limitations

新冠疫情全球肆虐与世界百年未有之大变局叠加,国际秩序深刻演变,大国博弈日趋激烈,地缘政治成为重要角力场。美国对华打压升级,挟“印太战略”强拉盟友,在中国周边编织遏华包围网。印度在美国全球战略中的地位不断攀升,“联印遏华”成为美国政治共识。莫迪领导印度人民党强势执政,深度调整外交战略,追求实用主义“多面联盟”,向美国战略靠拢越走越深。然而,受双方在全球与地缘政治对接、防务安全与贸易合作等领域分歧制约,标榜共同“价值观”实则以逐利为本的美印“天然伙伴”难以晋级结成同盟。拜登治下美国延续对华战略竞争,中美博弈进入战略相持阶段。“中国因素”仍将维系美印“高水平”战略合作伙伴关系,但印度的战略目标是实现“全球性领导大国”,搭上美国遏华“战车”只能南辕北辙。未来美印关系将徘徊于印度“战略自主”与美国“战略捆绑”的相互对抗、协作与共谋。

Against the background of the raging Covid pandemic and great changes in the world unseen in a century,the international order is undergoing profound changes as great power competition heats up and geopolitical competition takes center stage.In expanding and upgrading its strategic competition with China,the United States is trying to weave a net of containment around China by getting more allies to join the“Indo-Pacific Strategy.”As India’s importance continues to rise for U.S.global strategy,“getting India to curb China”has become a political consensus of the U.S..At the same time,India under the Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP)government led by Modi has moved closer to the U.S.as it has reoriented its diplomatic strategy and pursued pragmatic“multi-alignment.”However,India and the U.S.cannot become allies despite their so-called shared values because they are only“natural partners”in pursuit of tangible profits,constrained by their differences in the areas of global and geopolitical strategy,defense and security and trade issues.Under the Biden administration which continues a competitive China strategy,China-U.S.strategic competition has entered the stage of strategic stalemate.Although the China factor will still help to sustain a high-level strategic partnership between the U.S.and India,getting on the U.S.chariot to contain China is at odds with India’s strategic goal of becoming“a leading global power.”In the future,U.S.-India relations will vacillate between confrontation,cooperation and collusion as India wavers between“strategic autonomy”and“strategic alignment with the U.S..”