中国林产品进口增长三元边际及影响因素

Three-Dimensional Margin of Import Growth of Chinese Forest Products and Its Influencing Factors

我国森林资源匮乏,同时人口众多,市场潜力巨大,随着经济的发展和人民生活水平的提高,我国还将进一步扩大林产品进口,加速外向型林业的发展。因此,利用三元边际方法探究其进口结构、进口来源和影响因素具有重大意义。选取CEPII-BACI 2002年版HS6分位产品层面的数据,采用H-K分解法对中国林产品进口进行三元边际分解,并构建计量模型探究影响因素。实证结果表明:无论是在多边层次还是双边层次上,中国林产品进口增长主要是沿着数量边际实现的,价格边际和扩展边际影响不大,进口结构有待优化;从影响因素来看,增加从经济规模较小的市场的林产品进口,推动自由贸易协定的签署是提升扩展边际的有效手段;从新西兰、日本、加拿大和美国等发达经济体进口的林产品技术附加值高,价格边际高于发展中经济体的趋势愈加明显;中国对从发达经济体进口的林产品存在需求刚性,不易受成本因素影响。针对发达经济体,更加需要制定一系列林产品进口优惠政策以降低国内企业进口成本,保障国内需求。

China’s lack of forest resources,while the population is large,the market potential is huge,with the development of the economy and the improvement of people’s living standards,forest products as the most representative national economic development sustainable use of strategic resources,China will further expand the import of forest products in the future,accelerate the development of export-oriented forestry.Therefore,it is of great significance to use ternary marginal method to explore the import structure,import sources and real influencing factors.This paper selects the HS6 quantile data of CEPII-BACI(2002)at the product level,adopts H-K decomposition method to carry out ternary marginal decomposition of China’s forest product imports from multiple levels,and constructs an econometric model to explore the influencing factors.The results show that both at the multilateral and bilateral levels,the growth of China’s forest product import is mainly achieved along the quantity margin,the price margin and expansion margin have little influence,and the import structure needs to be optimized.From the perspective of influencing factors,increasing the import of forest products from the market with smaller economic scale and promoting the signing of free trade agreement are effective means to enhance the expansion margin.Forest products imported from developed economies such as New Zealand,Malaysia,Japan,Canada and the United States have high technical added value,and the price margin of forest products is higher than that of developing economies.China’s demand for forest products imported from developed economies is rigid and is not easily affected by cost factors.For developed economies,it is more necessary to formulate a series of preferential forest product import policies to reduce the import costs of domestic enterprises and ensure domestic demand.