2021年世界交通运输大会水运学部会议 船舶交通量三阶段法预测模型及其应用

Meeting of the Waterborne Transport Division, World Transport Convention 2021 (WTC 2021) Three-stage prediction model of ship traffic volume and its application

为精准预测船舶交通量,基于多源数据融合,提出用于预测船舶交通量的三阶段法,分别预测交会水域、单条航道的船舶交通量,并以长江六圩水域以及苏北运河航道为例进行实证研究。结果表明,三阶段法预测模型具有较强的预测精度。预计2040年苏北运河航道货运承载能力饱和度达到17.13%,即未来苏北运河航道利用水平较为合理,但仍处于较低水平,尤其是蔺家坝—宿迁窑湾航段和宿迁窑湾—淮安航段的利用水平更低。本文预测方法和结果可为水路交通规划与调度管理提供支撑。

In order to predict the ship traffic volume accurately,based on the fusion of multi-source data,a three-stage method is put forward to predict the ship traffic volume.The ship traffic volume in the intersection waters and a single channel is predicted,respectively.Taking Liuwei waters of the Yangtz River and the Grand Canal in the north of Jiangsu(North Jiangsu Canal,in short)for case study,the results show that the three-stage prediction model has strong prediction accuracy.The freight carrying capacity saturation of North Jiangsu Canal is predicted to reach 17.13%in 2040,that is,the utilization level of North Jiangsu Canal in the future is reasonable,but it is still at a low level,especially the utilization levels of Linjiaba-Yaowan of Suqian section and Yaowan of Suqian-Huai’an section are lower.The prediction methods and results of this paper can support the waterway traffic planning and scheduling management.