云南镇雄地质灾害频发原因及预警预报分析

Analysis on the Causes and Early Warning and Forecasting of Frequent Geological Disasters in Zhenxiong,Yunnan Province

镇雄县位于云南省东北部,地处云贵高原北部斜坡山地,境内高山深谷、水系发育、地表切割严重、降雨气候条件复杂。由于特殊的山区地形条件和人类工程活动,导致镇雄县内中小型滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害频繁发生,严重威胁到当地人民的生命财产安全。基于镇雄县灾害研究现状,从降雨及气候条件、区域地形地貌特征、地层岩性特征、地震作用以及人类活动等几个方面分别讨论了该地区地质灾害频发原因,最后针对滑坡灾害提出了现有3种监测预报方法,以期能够为该地区防灾减灾工作做出启示。监测预报方法为:①滑坡变形前兆的现象预报法;②位移-时间曲线变化趋势判别法;③黄金分割法。

Zhenxiong county is located in the northeast of Yunnan province,and in the northern slope mountain of Yungui plateau.Because of the special mountainous terrain conditions and human engineering activities,small and medium-sized landslides,debris flows and other geological disasters occur frequently in Zhenxiong county,which seriously threaten the safety of local people′s lives and property.Based on the present situation of disaster research in Zhenxiong county,this paper discusses the causes of frequent geological disasters in this area from the aspects of rainfall and climate conditions,regional topographic and geomorphological characteristics,stratigraphic and lithologic characteristics,seismic action and human activities,and finally puts forward three monitoring and forecasting methods for landslide disasters in order to enlighten the cause of disaster prevention and mitigation in this area.The monitoring and forecasting methods include phenomenon prediction method of landslide deformation precursor,displacement-time curve trend discrimination method and golden section method.