1989—2018年京津冀地区人体舒适度的变化特征

Change characteristics of human body comfort in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1989 to 2018

为了研究京津冀地区气候变化对人体舒适程度的影响,基于京津冀地区24个气象站点1989—2018年共30 a的温度、湿度和风速的月平均数据,得到京津冀地区人体舒适度指数(comfort of human body index,I_(CHB)).利用一元回归趋势线分析法对其时空变化特征进行分析,并结合通径分析法研究影响I_(CHB)的气象因素.研究结果表明:①京津冀地区I_(CHB)的等级主要为微冷和比较舒服,整体为冷凉特征,没有热及以上等级.②人体感觉最不舒适的季节为冬季,区域内各地区的I_(CHB)差异较小,体感为寒冷和冷;最为舒适的季节为夏季,京津冀地区全境I_(CHB)处于比较舒适的范围.除邢台市、邯郸市以及河北省南部的I_(CHB)等级为比较舒适,夏季其他大部分地区的I_(CHB)等级为舒适.I_(CHB)在春季上升剧烈,冬季下降较缓慢,秋季年际波动最小;③1989—2018年,京津冀地区年均I_(CHB)呈缓慢上升趋势,I_(CHB)平均值为49.5,多年变化趋势为0.014 a-1.1989—2000年,京津冀地区I_(CHB)先下降后上升,大部分年份的I_(CHB)小于平均值;2000—2006年,I_(CHB)基本保持稳定,在平均值附近波动变化;2006—2014年京津冀地区I_(CHB)先下降后上升;2014年后,I_(CHB)均处于平均值以上.京津冀地区近30年来I_(CHB)年际变化与该地区温度变化趋势一致,且波动性相似.④通径分析结果表明,温度与I_(CHB)的相关系数最高,为0.9857(P<0.05),说明温度是I_(CHB)的主要影响因子;湿度次之,与I_(CHB)呈较显著的正相关关系(P<0.1);风速对于I_(CHB)的影响较小.

In order to study the impact of climate change on human comfort in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the comfort of human body index(I_(CHB))was obtained based on the monthly mean temperature,humidity and wind speed data of 24 meteorological stations in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1989 to 2018.The spatial and temporal variation characteristics of I_(CHB) were analyzed by unitary regression trend line analysis method,and the meteorological factors affecting I_(CHB) were studied by path analysis method.The results show that:①the level of I_(CHB) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is mainly micro cold and relatively comfortable,which is cold and cool as a whole,without heat or above level.②The most uncomfortable season is winter,the difference of I_(CHB) in different regions is small,the body feeling is frigid and cold;the most comfortable season is summer,the body feeling is the most comfortable,the whole Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is in a relatively comfortable range of I_(CHB).In addition to Xingtai City and Handan City,the I_(CHB) level in the southern part of Hebei Province is relatively comfortable,while the I_(CHB) level in most other areas is comfortable in summer.The I_(CHB) increased sharply in spring,decreased slowly in winter,and had the least interannual fluctuation in autumn.③The annual average of I_(CHB) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows a slow upward trend from 1989 to 2018,with an average value of 49.5 and a multi-year change trend of 0.014 a-1.The I_(CHB) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region first decreases and then increases from 1989 to 2000,and the I_(CHB) in most years is less than the average value.I_(CHB) is basically stable and fluctuates around the mean value from 2000 to 2006.I_(CHB) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region first decreases and then increases from 2006 to 2014,and after 2014,the I_(CHB) is above the average value.The inter-annual change of I_(CHB) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in the past 30 years is consistent with the trend of temperature change in the region,and the fluctuation is similar.④Path analysis shows that the highest correlation coefficient between temperature and I_(CHB) is 0.9857(P<0.05),which indicating that temperature is the main influencing factor of I_(CHB),followed by humidity,which has a significant positive correlation with I_(CHB)(P<0.1),and wind speed has a little influence on I_(CHB).