结构性减税与地方财政可持续性--基于“营改增”的实证研究

Structural Tax Reduction and Local Government Fiscal Sustainability:An Empirical Research Based on the Value-added Tax Reform

结构性减税虽然有着拓宽税基和涵养税源的作用,但也给地方财政可持续发展带来严峻挑战。笔者选取2010—2014年全国285个地级市的面板数据,通过财政反应函数对地方财政可持续性指标进行量化,以“营改增”为准自然实验构建多期双重差分模型实证检验结构性减税对地方财政可持续性的影响效应。研究发现,“营改增”显著提升了地方财政可持续性,并且政策效应存在滞后性,在政策实施当期表现为微弱的促进作用,而后逐渐增强。异质性检验表明,“营改增”的政策效应在东部地区及第三产业占比较高的城市存在显著的促进作用,但对西部地区的城市存在抑制作用。进一步的分析发现,“营改增”主要通过企业生产激励效应和地方政府行为扭曲效应两种作用渠道影响地方财政可持续性。本文的研究结论为在推进减税政策过程中切实保障地方财政长期可持续性提供经验借鉴。

Using the value-added tax reform as a quasi-natural experiment,this paper constructs a difference-in-difference model,and selects the 2010-2014 panel data from 285 prefecture-level cities to empirically test the impact of structural tax reduction on local government fiscal sustainability(LGFS)quantified through the fiscal response function.The results show that:Firstly,the value-added tax reform plays a weak role in promoting LGFS in the current period of policy implementation,and the effect is gradually obvious with a time lag.Secondly,the impact of the policy on LGFS is heterogeneous,which has a significant positive effect in the eastern region and a negative effect in the western region.Thirdly,the policy affects the LGFS mainly through stimulating the production of enterprises and distorting the behavior of local governments.Accordingly,the central government should promote modern-tax reform,and re-establish the local government tax system to ensure the long-term of LGFS.