刺槐始花期预报方法探究

Study on Prediction Method of Initial Flowering Period of Robinia Pseudoacacia

随着时代的发展,人们对于不同种类花期的研究逐渐深入,如何利用花期服务社会值得思考。分析了德州市气象局1981—1988年、1992—2018年共35年的气象观测资料与刺槐的物候期观测资料,利用SPSS软件挑选与刺槐始花期相关性强的气象因子,并进行逐步回归分析,得到预报方程,对预报方程进行拟合性检验,采用拟合性较好的预报方程,结合未来天气预报,试报临邑县红坛寺森林公园刺槐始花期,希望可以有效辅助刺槐始花期的预报方法进行改进。

With the development of the times,people have gradually deepened the research on different types of flowering.It is worth thinking about how to use flowering to serve the society.In this paper,the meteorological observation data and the phenological period observation data of Robinia pseudoacacia of Dezhou Meteorological Bureau from 1981 to 1988 and 1992 to 2018 are analyzed.The meteorological factors with strong correlation with the initial flowering period of Robinia pseudoacacia are selected by SPSS software,and the stepwise regression analysis is carried out to obtain the prediction equation,the goodness of fit of the prediction equation is tested,and the prediction equation with good goodness of fit is used in combination with the future weather forecast.This paper reports the initial flowering period of Robinia pseudoacacia in hongtansi Forest Park of Linyi County,hoping to effectively assist in the improvement of the prediction method of the initial flowering period of Robinia pseudoacacia.