岳阳市耕地足迹与经济脱钩分析及预测研究

Analysis and prediction of cultivated land footprint and economic decoupling in Yueyang city

采用生态足迹模型、Tapio脱钩模型和灰色预测模型对岳阳市耕地的利用情况进行分析,从生态足迹视角剖析耕地足迹的发展情况、与农产值脱钩情况以及对未来的发展进行预测。结果表明,岳阳市耕地人均生态足迹较高,其中,人均生态足迹峰值为0.99 hm^(2)/人,生态赤字水平为0.833 hm^(2)/人,生态足迹深度为6.3,足迹广度则为0.100~0.157;脱钩状态以弱脱钩为主,频率为60%,强脱钩为20%,耕地发展处于产业发展、资源压力逐步上升的状态;预测结果显示,人均生态足迹将持续增长,脱钩状态以弱脱钩为主",十四五"期间岳阳市需要在耕地高质量发展和保护方面持续发力。

The utilization of cultivated land in Yueyang city is analyzed by using ecological footprint model,Tapio decoupling model and grey prediction model.From the perspective of ecological footprint,the development of cultivated land footprint and the decoupling of agricultural output value are analyzed,and the future development is predicted.The results show that per capita ecological footprint of cultivated land in Yueyang city is high,in which the peak value of per capita ecological footprint is 0.99 hm^(2)/people,the ecological deficit level is 0.833 hm^(2)/people,the depth of ecological footprint is 6.3,and the footprint breadth is 0.100~0.157;The decoupling state is dominated by weak decoupling,with a frequency of 60%and a strong decoupling of 20%.The development of cultivated land is in a state of industrial development and resource pressure rising gradually.The forecast results show that the per capita ecological footprint will continue to increase,and the decoupling status is mainly weak.During the“14 th five-year”period,Yueyang city needs to make continuous efforts in the high-quality development and protection of cultivated land.