基于价量因果关系分析的房地产调控政策效果研究

Discussion on the Effect of Real Estate Regulation Policy from the Causality between Price and Quantity

基于我国的商品房成交面积和成交金额等数据,对国内34座城市的房地产成交价量因果关系开展实证研究,并分析其市场特征;在此基础上结合房价调控政策的阶段性特征,判断市场特征与政策导向的匹配性。结果表明,一线城市由"量影响价"变为"无关系",市场逐渐从刚性需求向正常需求市场转变;而二线城市则是从"无关系"变为"价影响量",说明投机需求不断增长,并已影响到正常需求市场。未来我国房地产调控政策仍需持续优化并因城施策。

Based on the transaction area and transaction amount of commercial housing in 34 cities of China,this paper conducts an empirical study on the causality between price and volume,and analyzes the characteristics of the market by the causality.On the basis,combined with the phased characteristics of real estate price regulation policy,judges the matching between market characteristics and policy orientation.Results show that in first-tier cities,the change from quantity influencing price to irrelevant indicates that the market has changed from rigid demand to normal demand.In second-tier cities,the change from irrelevant to quantity influencing price indicates that speculative demand is growing and has affected the normal demand market.Future regulatory policies need to be carried out continuously,and move toward the direction of detailed policies based on the city.