区域与空间视角下中国城市规模分布与增长

The Distribution and Growth of China’s City Size from Regional and Spatial Perspective

检验齐普夫定律和吉布拉定律在中国城市规模分布和增长中的适用性,有利于分析中国城市体系的演变趋势和合理化特征。研究表明:中国城市规模分布基本服从齐普夫定律,但存在明显的分化特征和趋势;中部地区城市规模分布呈现扁平化特征,而其他区域均存在明显的分化特征和趋势,这与其内部城市规模的差异相关;全国和区域层面城市规模增长基本服从吉布拉定律,这与小城市和大城市人口增长较快,而中等城市人口增长较慢相关。因此国家需要调整未来城镇化发展的重点,在中部地区应当注重发展大城市,而其他地区应当注重大中小城市协调发展;另外还需要加大对中等城市的政策倾斜和增强大城市的空间溢出效应,以促进中等城市人口增长。

Testing the applicability of Zipf’s law and Gibrat’s law in the distribution and growth of China’s city size is helpful to analyze the evolution trend and rationalization characteristics of China’s urban system. The results show that China’s city size distribution generally obeys Zipf’s law, but there are obvious divergence features and trends. The distribution of city size presents a flat feature in the central region, while other regions have obvious divergence features and trends, which are related to their inter-region difference. The growth of city size at the national and regional levels basically obeys Gibrat’s law, which is related to the rapid population growth of small and big cities, while the slower growth of population in medium-sized cities. Therefore, the focus of future urbanization development needs to be adjusted, and the central region should focus on the development of big cities, while other regions should focus on the coordinated development of big, medium and small cities. It is also necessary to increase policy inclination for medium-sized cities and enhance the spatial spillover effect of big cities to ensure population growth in medium-sized cities.