哮喘预测指数与哮喘预测评分对儿童哮喘的预测价值分析

Analysis of predictive value of asthma predictive index and asthma prediction score in children with asthma

目的评估哮喘预测指数(API)和哮喘预测评分(APS)对儿童哮喘的预测价值。方法分析266例年龄≥6岁既往有喘息患儿的问卷调查情况,调查表主要由API和APS的各项参数组成,包括患儿的一般情况、家族史、喘息情况、过敏情况和试验性治疗情况。利用腾讯问卷输入数据并进行整理,通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)评价API与APS对儿童哮喘的预测效能,通过Hosmer-Lemeshow检验评价校准度。结果 ROC曲线分析显示,API的宽松指标与严格指标的AUC分别为0.734与0.718,APS的AUC为0.975, APS的截断值为4.5分。Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验结果显示,2种哮喘预测工具的校准线图中的实测值与期望值贴合,校准度良好。结论 2种哮喘预测工具的校准度良好,APS对儿童哮喘的预测价值高于API。

Objective To evaluate the predictive value of asthma prediction index(API) and asthma prediction score(APS) in children with asthma. Method In this study, 266 children aged ≥ 6 years old with previous history of wheezing were investigated by questionnaire, which was mainly composed of different parameters of API and APS, including general condition, family history, wheezing condition, allergic condition, and response to anti-asthma therapy. The data input from Tencent questionnaire software was collected and analyzed. The predictive efficacy of API and APS was evaluated by the area under receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve(AUC), and the calibration was evaluated by Hosmer-Lemeshow good of fit test. Results ROC curve analysis demonstrated that the AUC of the loose index and stringent index of API were 0.734 and 0.718, respectively. The AUC of APS was 0.975. The cutoff value of APS was 4.5. HosmerLemeshow goodness of fit test revealed no significant difference between the predicted value of the model and the actual value. Conclusion The calibration of these two asthma predictive tools is good, and the predictive value of APS is higher than that of API.