基于系统动力学的江西省需水量预测

Water Demand Prediction of Jiangxi Province Based on System Dynamics

通过系统动力学方法,对不同情景下江西省2017—2050年的需水量进行预测,并对江西省未来水资源供需状况进行分析.结果表明,预测期内,4种情景下平均总需水量分别为286.75,343.52,228.62,268.99亿m^(3);2050年总需水量分别为366.30,597.20,281.90,446.10亿m^(3);4种情景下江西省出现缺水的年份比例分别为44.1%,58.8%,5.9%,32.4%,平均缺水量分别为40.34,120.60,8.08,81.92亿m^(3),平均缺水指数分别为0.1427,0.4267,0.0298,0.3025.在发展经济的同时,江西省需增强节水意识,做到“开源”与“节流”相结合,才能保证水资源供需的长久平衡和社会经济的可持续发展.

The article predicted the water demand of Jiangxi Province in 2017—2050 under different situations with the method of system dynamics,and analyzed the future supply and demand of water resources in Jiangxi Province.The results showed that the average total water demand were 28.675 billion m^(3),34.352 billion m^(3),22.862 billion m^(3) and 26.899 billion m^(3) respectively under four situations during the prediction period;the total water demand in the year 2050 were 36.630 billion m^(3),59.720 billion m^(3),28.190 billion m^(3) and 44.610 billion m^(3) respectively;the proportions of water shortage years in Jiangxi province were 44.1%,58.8%,5.9%and 32.4%respectively.The average water shortage were 4.034,12.060,0.808 and 8.192 billion m^(3) respectively,while the average water shortage indexes were 0.1427,0.4267,0.0298 and 0.3025 respectively.At the same time of economic development,the awareness of water conservation needs to be enhanced in Jiangxi province,and only the combination of“open source”with“throttling”can ensure the long-term balance of water supply and demand and the sustainable development of social economy.