基于二维云信息扩散和三维信息扩散的台风灾害风险估计

Typhoon disaster risk estimation based on two-dimensional cloud information diffusion and three-dimensional information diffusion

基于二维云信息扩散和三维信息扩散提出了一个台风灾害风险估计模型,构建二维云信息扩散模型,估计不同风力等级和降雨极值下的台风灾害概率分布;利用三维信息扩散模型估计台风直接经济损失分布;基于条件概率分布将其合成风险,估计不同水平致灾因子作用下的台风灾害损失风险;并以2000—2017年华南台风为例,对登陆时最大风力等级和降雨极值发生的可能性及其直接经济损失分布进行估计,得到了不同风力等级和降雨极值下的台风灾害损失风险,估计结果与实际基本相符。

In this paper, a typhoon disaster risk estimation model was proposed based on two-dimensional cloud information diffusion and three-dimensional information diffusion. A two-dimensional cloud information diffusion model was constructed to estimate the probability distribution of typhoon disaster under different wind levels and rainfall extremes. The direct economic loss distribution of typhoon was estimated by using three-dimensional information diffusion model. Based on the conditional probability distribution, the risk was synthesized, and the typhoon disaster loss risk under different levels of hazard factors was estimated. Taking the typhoon in South China from 2000 to 2017 as an example, the possibility of maximum wind level and extreme rainfall at landing and its direct economic loss distribution were estimated, and the typhoon disaster loss risk under different wind levels and extreme rainfall were obtained. The estimated results are basically consistent with the reality.