基于热力学熵的广西暴雨落区预示性效果检验初报——以突发性暴雨为例

Preliminary report on the predictive effect verification of rainstorm area in Guangxi based on thermodynamic entropy——taking sudden rainstorm as an example

基于热力学熵的MCS理论体系预测方法已在广西中尺度短时天气预报业务上得到应用,为了进一步检验该方法对突发性暴雨的预示性效果,本文选取了2019—2020年广西3个不同特点的突发性暴雨过程进行分析。结果表明,在暴雨落区预示性分析中,时间分布预示性超前于暴雨实际发生2—8h,空间分布预示性与暴雨实际发生发展相吻合,与基于热力学熵的MCS理论体系描述一致。

The MCS theoretical system prediction method based on thermodynamic entropy has been applied to the mesoscale short-term forecasting operations in Guangxi.In order to further test the predictive effect of this method on sudden rainstorm,three sudden rainstorm processes with different characteristics in Guangxi from 2019 to 2020 were selected for analysis.The results show that in the prediction analysis of rainstorm falling area,the prediction of time distribution is 2-8 hours ahead of the actual occurrence of rainstorm,and the prediction of spatial distribution is consistent with the actual occurrence and development of rainstorm,which is consistent with the description of MCS theoretical system based on thermodynamic entropy.