汇总会计盈余如何影响未来通货膨胀?——基于省级层面的数据

How Does Aggregate Accounting Earnings Affect Future Inflation?:An Analysis Based on Provincial Level Data

汇总会计盈余对未来通货膨胀的预测功能已得到证实,但这一预测功能的实现机制尚不明晰。文章探讨了汇总会计盈余影响未来通货膨胀的两种机制——投资需求机制和消费需求机制,研究发现:汇总会计盈余变动对未来通货膨胀的影响,部分通过投资需求机制实现,但不会通过消费需求机制实现;在非金融业和会计制度环境优化后的分组中,会计盈余通过投资需求对未来通货膨胀的预测能力更强;宏观分析师在预测生产者价格指数(PPI)过程中,利用了会计盈余信息。文章的研究结论丰富了汇总会计信息对宏观经济指标影响机理的研究成果,既为未来通货膨胀的预测提供依据,又为政府部门控制通货膨胀,制定有效的经济政策提供参考。

The function of aggregate accounting earnings predicting future inflation has been confirmed,but the realization mechanism of this function is not clear.This paper discusses two mechanisms that aggregate accounting earnings affect future inflation:investment demand mechanism and consumption demand mechanism.It is found that the impact of the change of the aggregate accounting earnings on future inflation is partly realized through the investment demand mechanism,but not through the consumption demand mechanism;in the non-financial industry and the optimized accounting system environment,the accounting earnings have stronger ability to forecast future inflation through investment demand;in the process of forecasting producer price index(PPI),the macro analysts use the information of enterprise earnings.The results of this paper enrich the research on the influencing mechanism of the impact of aggregate accounting information on macro-economic indicators,provide the basis for the prediction of future inflation,and provide reference for government departments to control inflation and formulate effective economic policies.