农村配电网光伏与负荷相关性概率潮流计算

Probabilistic Power Flow Analysis Incorporating the Correlations between PV Power Outputs and Loads in Rural Distribution Network

由于农村配电网的光伏出力与负荷存在较强的相关关系,针对其概率潮流计算处理随机变量相关系数矩阵非正定的不足,提出一种基于特征值分解法的Nataf变换处理光伏出力与负荷之间的相关性,并且结合CSMCMCS-L算法进行概率潮流计算,不仅具有较高的计算效率,而且相较于其他处理非正定性的方法计算更为简单,精度更高。采取光伏出力的综合建模方法,以准确反映不同情况下光伏出力特性。在IEEE33节点配电系统进行仿真验证了所提方法的有效性和准确性。

Due to the strong correlation between the photovoltaic power generation and load of the rural distribution network,the non-stateful lack of the correlation coefficient of the random variable correlation coefficient was proposed,and Nataf conversion process based on the eigenvalue decomposition was proposed,and combined with the CSMCMCS-L algorithm,probabilistic power flow was calculated.The method not only has high computational efficiency,but also is more simple and accurate compared to other defective methods.and a comprehensive modeling method of photovoltaic effort was used to accurately reflect equivalent in different situations.Simulation of the IEEE33 node distribution system verified the effectiveness and accuracy of the method.