湖北省COVID-19疫情时空聚类分析及社会经济影响因素研究

Spatiotemporal cluster analysis and socio-economic influencing factors of COVID-19 epidemic situation in Hubei Province

探究湖北省的新型冠状病毒肺炎(corona virus disease 2019, COVID-19)的时空聚集性特征及社会经济影响因素对于疫情防控具有重要参考价值。对湖北省的COVID-19疫情时序数据进行时空聚类分析,针对聚类结果,划分不同的疫情发展阶段,采用Spearman相关性分析对影响湖北省(除武汉市)疫情发展的经济社会影响因素进行深入分析。时空聚类分析结果表明:疫情时空一级聚类区为2020年1月31日—2月20日的武汉市,相对危险度为29.08;二级聚类区为2020年1月31日—2月6日的孝感市、随州市、仙桃市、荆州市、荆门市、宜昌市、天门市、潜江市,平均相对危险度为1.60。相对危险度(relative risk,RR)可定量反映地区的疫情风险程度,帮助划分危险等级,合理调配资源和制定防疫措施;分阶段探究疫情扩散的社会经济影响因素对研究疫情的扩散机制意义重大。人口密度、人均GDP(gross domestic product)、武汉迁入人口占比和城内出行强度在疫情传播过程中产生重要影响。疫情初期人均GDP是影响疫情发病率的主要因素;快速发展期武汉迁入人口占比和城内出行强度是重要的指标,武汉流入人口与本地人口密切接触的"一次传播"在本阶段疫情扩散中起了主要作用;爆发期人口密度和武汉迁入人口占比是本阶段疫情的重要影响因素,社区家庭聚集传播可能是本阶段疫情的主要传播模式。疫情防控应根据不同时期疫情传播模式差异实施针对性措施,例如疫情初期加强疫情防控宣传,提高个人防疫意识,关注外地输入防控,控制人口流动。疫情中后期以本地传播防控为重点,加强对社区和聚集性活动的防控,公共场所保持社交距离,有效防止疫情反弹。

Exploring the temporal and spatial clustering characteristics of the new type of corona virus pneumonia(corona virus disease 2019, COVID-19) in Hubei Province and the socio-economic influencing factors have essential reference value for epidemic prevention and control. This paper conducted a spatiotemporal cluster analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic data in Hubei Province. According to the clustering results, different epidemic development stages were divided. Spearman correlation analysis was used to analyze the economic and social factors affecting the epidemic development in Hubei Province(except Wuhan City). The results of spatiotemporal cluster analysis showed that the first level spatiotemporal cluster area was Wuhan City from January 31 to February 20, 2020, and the relative risk was 29.08. The second level spatiotemporal cluster areas were Xiaogan, Suizhou, Xiantao, Jingzhou, Jingmen, Yichang, Tianmen, and Qianjiang cities from January 31 to February 6, 2020, and the average relative risk was 1.60. Relative risk(RR) can quantitatively reflect the degree of epidemic risk in a region, help classify risk levels, allocate resources rationally, and formulate epidemic prevention measures. Exploring the socio-economic factors affecting the spread of the epidemic in stages has a great significance to studying the spread of the epidemic. Population density, gross domestic product(GDP) per capita, the proportion of Wuhan’s immigrant population, and the intensity of travel within the city have an important impact on the spread of the epidemic. Per capita GDP is the main factor affecting the incidence rate of the epidemic. During the rapid development period, the proportion of the immigrant population and the intensity of travel in Wuhan are important indicators. The "primary transmission" of close contact between the incoming population and the local population in Wuhan plays a major role in the spread of the epidemic. The population density and the proportion of the immigrant population in Wuhan during the outbreak period are the important influencing factors of the epidemic. The community family gathering transmission is the main transmission mode of the epidemic at this stage. In the process of epidemic prevention and control, targeted measures should be implemented according to the differences of epidemic transmission modes in different periods, such as strengthening the publicity of epidemic prevention and control in the early stage of the epidemic, improving personal awareness of epidemic prevention, paying attention to the prevention and control of the imported population, and controlling population flow. In the middle and late stages of the epidemic, we should focus on preventing and controlling local transmission, strengthening the prevention and control of community and gathering activities, maintaining social distance in public places, and effectively preventing the rebound of the epidemic.