房贷利率政策改革的影响分析

Analysis of the impact of the reform of the interest rate model of housing loans

房贷利率政策改革于2019年拉开序幕,引发社会广泛关注.该文选择国民生产总值(GDP)、广义货币供应量与国内生产总值的比值(M2/GDP)以及消费者物价指数(CPI)作为主要影响因素和分析角度,采用VAR模型和JJ检验法对本次改革进行了相关分析.结合美国、德国和日本的情况,判定我国LPR利率长期来看存在下行趋势,并据此提出多种不同情况下购房利率模式的选择建议.

The reform of housing loan interest rate policy begins in 2019,which has aroused widespread concern in the society.In this paper,the gross national product(GDP),the ratio of broad money supply to GDP(M2/GDP),and the consumer price index(CPI)are chosen to be the main influencing factors,then from this point of view,VAR model and JJ test method are used to analyze the impact of the reform.By analyzing and combining with the relevant situations of the United States,Germany and Japan,this paper gives the judgement that China’s LPR interest rate has a downward trend in the long run.Based on this,some suggestions are put forward on the choice of the interest rate mode of house purchase under various circumstances.