中美贸易摩擦下人民币汇率制度改革路径探析

Reform of the RMB Exchange Rate System under the US-China Trade Frictions

中美贸易摩擦开启以来,人民币汇率明显受到中美贸易谈判形势的影响,人民币汇率制度再次成为中美之间乃至国际社会的热门且敏感的论题。事实上,中国人民币汇率制度的市场化改革已经取得了较大的成就,但美国在贸易战未能实现其预期效果时,再次将矛头指向人民币汇率制度,这将使中国汇率制度改革的外部环境更加复杂,也在一定程度上放大了相关制度的内在缺陷。中国应坚决捍卫汇率主权,近期内促进市场定价效率的提升并设立适当的人民币汇率目标区;远期目标是明确人民币的价值基础,改革央行的管理方式,最终构建人民币自由浮动汇率制。

Since the start of the Sino-US trade friction,the RMB exchange rate is obviously affected by the situation of the Sino-US trade negotiations,and the RMB exchange rate system has once again become a hot and sensitive topic between China and the United States and even the international community.In fact,the marketoriented reform of China’s RMB exchange rate system has made great achievements,but the United States,when the trade war failed to achieve its expected results,once again pointed its finger at the RMB exchange rate system,which will not only make the external environment for the reform of China’s exchange rate system more complicated,but also to a certain extent amplify the inherent defects of the relevant system.China should resolutely defend the sovereignty of its exchange rate,promote the efficiency of market pricing and set up an appropriate target zone for the RMB exchange rate in the near future.The long-term goal is to clarify the value basis of the RMB,reform the management of the central bank,and ultimately construct a free floating exchange rate system for the RMB.