农业保险与普惠金融的协调减贫效应——基于区域演进和空间溢出的实证检验

The Coordinated Poverty Reduction Effect of Agricultural Insurance and Inclusive Finance:Empirical Tests Based on Regional Evolution and Spatial Spillover Effects

在我国脱贫攻坚成果巩固拓展与乡村振兴有效衔接的新阶段,农业保险与普惠金融将发挥重要的促进作用。基于31个省市2008—2018年的面板数据,采用熵权法系统评估我国普惠金融、农业保险与减贫增收的发展状况,测度农业保险与普惠金融发展的耦合协调度,基于核密度函数观测两者协调发展的区域动态演进特征,利用固定效应模型对二者协调发展的减贫增收效应进行实证检验,并通过门槛效应模型和空间面板杜宾模型进一步分析其非线性影响以及空间溢出效应。研究发现:1)样本期间我国整体农业保险与普惠金融的耦合协调度不高,但呈现显著增长趋势。2)分地区来看,东部地区各省耦合协调度高,但省际差异较大;西部地区与中部地区耦合协调度总体相仿,中部地区各省差异最小,西部地区省域间差异明显趋向缩小。3)总体上农业保险与普惠金融的协调发展具有显著的减贫增收效果,其中东部地区减贫成效最为显著,西部次之;门槛效应检验结果显示,较高的经济发展水平能够增强二者协调发展的减贫作用。4)农业保险与普惠金融的协调发展对减贫增收效果在空间上存在正向溢出效应。

In the new stage of consolidating and expanding the results of poverty alleviation and rural revitalization in China,agricultural insurance and inclusive finance will play an important facilitating role.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and cities from 2008-2018,the entropy weight method is used to systematically assess the development of inclusive finance,agricultural insurance and poverty reduction and income increase in China,to measure the coupling coordination of agricultural insurance and inclusive finance development,and to observe the regional dynamic evolution characteristics of the coordinated development of both based on the kernel density function.This passage tests the impact of coupling coordination on poverty reduction and income increase of farmers using the fixed-effects model,and investigates their nonlinear effects as well as spatial spillover effects using the threshold effect model and the spatial panel Durbin model.The study found that,firstly,the overall coupling coordination between agricultural insurance and inclusive finance in China was not high during the sample period,but showed a significant growth trend.By regions,the coupling coordination degree of provinces in the eastern region is high,but the inter-provincial differences are large;however,the coupling coordination degree of the western region and the central region is similar in general.The differences among provinces in the central region are the smallest of these three regions,and the differences among provinces in the western region tend to narrow significantly.Secondly,overall,the coordinated development of agricultural insurance and inclusive finance has a significant effect of poverty reduction and income increase.The effect of poverty reduction is most significant in the eastern region,followed by the western region.The results of the threshold effect test show that a higher level of economic development can enhance the poverty reduction effect of the coordinated development of the two.Third,there is a positive spatial spillover effect of coordinated development of agricultural insurance and inclusive finance on poverty reduction and income increase.