基于碳排放的黄河流域旅游业绿色全要素生产率时空演化及影响因素分析

Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Green Total Factor Productivity of Tourism in the Yellow River Basin Based on Carbon Emission and Analysis of Influencing Factors

旅游业绿色全要素生产率与区域旅游业绿色发展和生态文明建设息息相关。在利用“自下而上”法对黄河流域旅游业碳排放量估算基础上,采用DEA-Malmquist指数、重力和标准差椭圆模型对黄河流域10年间的旅游业绿色生产率时空演变进行探讨,并进一步运用Tobit模型分析其影响因素。结果表明:1)10年间研究区域旅游业绿色全要素生产率总体以11.3%的增长率上升;2)旅游业绿色全要素生产率整体呈现上升趋势,且为进步型;3)旅游业绿色全要素生产率在2007—2008年间呈现出东西高中间低特征,在2011—2012年间呈现出中间高东西低的格局,2015—2016年除山东处于上升状态外,其他省份均呈现负增长;4)旅游业绿色全要素生产率重心总体上先偏东北再向东南方向移动,标准差椭圆主要位于黄河流域的中东部地区,呈现先扩散后趋于集聚态势;5)旅游经济规模、产业结构、技术水平和城镇化水平对各省区旅游业绿色全要素生产率影响的空间异质性较强,而经济发展水平的影响较弱。

Green TFP of tourism is closely related to green development of regional tourism and ecological civilization construction.In this paper,based on the“bottom-up”method for estimating the carbon emissions of tourism in the Yellow River Basin,DEA-Malmquist index,gravity and standard deviation elliptic model are used to discuss the spatialtemporal evolution of the green productivity of tourism in the Yellow River Basin in 10 years,and Tobit model is further used to analyze its influencing factors.The results show that:1)The green total factor productivity of tourism industry in the study area rose by 11.3%in 10 years.2)The green total factor productivity of tourism shows an overall rising trend and is progressive;3)From 2007 to 2008,the green total factor productivity of tourism showed the characteristics of high from east to west and low in the middle.From 2011 to 2012,the green total factor productivity of tourism showed a pattern of high from east to west and low in the middle.From 2015 to 2016,all provinces showed negative growth except Shandong Province,which was on the rise.4)The center of green total factor productivity of tourism generally moves to the northeast and then to the southeast,and the standard deviation ellipse is mainly located in the middle and east of the Yellow River Basin,showing a tendency of diffusion and then agglomeration.5)The impact of tourism economic scale,industrial structure,technological level and urbanization level on the green TFP of tourism in various provinces and regions is relatively strong in spatial heterogeneity,while the impact of economic development level is relatively weak.