新疆北疆地区气候要素对棉花生长和产量的影响分析

Analysis of the Influence of Climate Factors on Cotton Growth and Yield in Northern Xinjiang

农业是国民经济的基础产业,受气候变化影响较大、也是对气候变化反应最为敏感的产业。为合理高效利用气候资源,促进当地经济发展,通过对气象要素分析,探讨气候变化对北疆宜棉区棉花生长和产量的影响。因而选取1981-2020年乌兰乌苏地区棉花生长年气候因子、生长季内气象要素、棉花生长发育资料,分析了棉花生长期内气候变化特征、棉花生长发育及产量的年际变化趋势,探讨影响其差异变化的主要气象因子。结果表明,近40年来年平均气温、年降水量、年平均0 cm地温总体呈显著上升趋势。气温、地温是影响北疆地区棉花生长发育变化的关键因子;棉花各生育时期,从播种期到停长期均表现出不同程度的提前趋势,但成熟期推迟,田间生长期延长;8月和10月的各气象因素对棉花气候产量有极显著影响;气候产量与8月的各气候要素呈极显著正相关,气温、日照的增加有利于棉花产量的形成,但谨防35℃以上高温天气对棉花受精率、棉铃体积、蕾铃脱落等的不利影响。气候产量与10月各气候要素均呈极显著负相关。

Agriculture is the basic industry of the national economy,which is greatly affected by climate change and it is also the most climate-sensitive industry.In order to make rational and efficient use of climate resources and promote local economic development,the influence of climate change on the growth and yield of cotton in the suitable cotton planting region of northern Xinjiang was discussed through analysis of meteorological factors.Therefore,climatic and meteorological factors in the growing season and the growth period of cotton data from 1981 to 2020 were selected to analyze the climate change characteristics during the growing period,the interannual variation trend of the growth period and the yield of cotton,also to explore the main meteorological factors affecting on the variation of the differences.The results showed that the annual average temperature,annual precipitation and annual average ground temperature of 0cm have a significant upward trend in the past 40 years.Air temperature and ground temperature are the key factors affecting the change of cotton growth in northern Xinjiang.The different cotton growth period,from seeding period to stopping period showed a trend of advancing in different degrees.But the mature period is delayed,and the field growth period is prolonged.The meteorological factors in August and October had a significant effect on the climatic yield of cotton.The climatic yield was positively correlated with the climatic factors in August.The increase of air temperature and sunshine was beneficial to the formation of cotton yield.However,beware of the adverse effects of high temperature weather above 35 degrees on the fertility rate,boll volume and shedding of cotton.There was a significant negative correlation between climate yield and climate factors in October.