中国2005—2019年0~14岁儿童肺炎死亡趋势分析

Pneumonia mortality in children aged 0-14 years in China during 2005 to 2019

目的了解中国近15年0~14岁儿童肺炎死亡率及变化趋势,为制定儿童肺炎防治策略提供参考依据。方法利用2005—2019年卫生统计年鉴中的城乡居民死亡数据,提取城乡0~14岁儿童肺炎死亡率并计算标化死亡率,利用Joinpoint回归模型拟合死亡率变化趋势。结果城市和农村儿童肺炎死亡粗率均呈增加趋势,标化死亡率总体呈波动下降趋势。Joinpoint回归显示中国城乡儿童肺炎标化死亡率均为单调下降趋势,无转折点。城市儿童肺炎标化死亡率总体APC为-3.4,男童为-3.5,女童为-3.5,其中城市儿童总体及城市男童标化死亡率年度变化趋势差异均有统计学意义(P值均<0.05)。农村儿童肺炎标化死亡率总体APC为-7.8,男童为-7.1,女童为-7.8,差异均有统计学意义(P值均<0.05)。城市和农村儿童组间变化趋势差异无统计学意义。结论2005—2019年间中国城乡儿童肺炎死亡率总体处于下降趋势,城乡死亡率变化趋势较平衡。今后还需持续加强对儿童肺炎的干预措施,降低儿童肺炎死亡率。

Objective To understand pneumonia mortality in children aged 0-14 years in China in recent 15 years,and to provide reference for child pneumonia prevention and treatment.Methods Based on the death data from China Statistical Yearbook 2005-2019,pneumonia mortality in urban and rural children aged 0-14 was extracted and the standardized mortality was calculated,and the trend of mortality was fitted by Joinpoint regression model.Results The crude mortality rate of child pneumonia in urban and rural areas showed an increasing trend,while the standardized mortality rate showed a fluctuating downward trend.Joinpoint regression showed that the mortality rate of pneumonia in urban and rural children showed a monotonous downward trend,and there was no turning point.The overall APC of pneumonia mortality of urban children was-3.4,that of boys and girls were both-3.5.Trend for annual changes in urban areas were found significant among total sample and boys(both P<0.05).The overall APC of pneumonia mortality in rural children was-7.8,that of boys and girls were-7.1 and-7.8,respectively.Trend for annual changes in rural areas were found significant among total sample and boys(both P<0.05).There was no significant differences in the trend of mortality between urban and rural groups.Conclusion During 2005 to 2019,child pneumonia mortality in urban and rural areas in China shows a downward trend,which is relatively balanced in urban and rural areas.Further strengthened pediatric pneumonia treatment and management are expected to reduce the pneumonia mortality.