北极东北航线通航对中欧贸易潜力的影响——基于空间可计算一般均衡模型的模拟分析

Impact of the Northern Sea Route on Trade Potential Between China and Europe:A Simulation Analysis Based on the Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Model

北极海冰的加速融化使连接亚欧的北极东北航线将在未来30年内逐步开通,极大地缩短中欧之间的运输通道,进而对双边贸易产生重要影响。文章从微观贸易以及运输活动出发,利用空间可计算一般均衡(SCGE)模型来测算由东北航线通航引起的中欧贸易潜力变化,并分别模拟了燃油价格、船舶航速和破冰费用变动对双边贸易的差异化影响。结果表明:东北航线将有效降低中欧贸易运输成本,促进中欧经济增长和双边贸易,中国获得的经贸利益更为显著;燃油价格上调将加强东北航线对中欧贸易的推动作用,而船舶航速和破冰费用的增加将削弱东北航线对中欧贸易的正向影响。对此,中国应从战略高度明确东北航线的潜在价值,深化中欧经贸合作进而实现互利共赢。

With the accelerated melting of Arctic sea ice,the Northeast Sea Route connecting Asia and Europe will be gradually opened in the next 30 years,which will greatly shorten the transportation channel between China and Europe,and thus have an important impact on bilateral trade.Based on micro trade and transportation activities,this paper uses the spatial computable general equilibrium(SCGE)model to measure the change of trade potential between China and Europe caused by the Northern Sea Route,and simulates the differential effects of the changes in fuel price,ship speed and ice breaking cost on bilateral trade respectively.The results are as follows:the Northern Sea Route will effectively reduce the transportation costs of trade between China and Europe,promote the economic growth and bilateral trade between China and Europe,and China’s economic and trade benefits will be more significant;the increase of fuel price will strengthen the role of the Northern Sea Route in promoting trade between China and Europe,while the increase of ship speed and ice breaking cost will weaken the positive impact of the Northern Sea Route on trade between China and Europe.In this regard,China should strategically clarify the potential value of the Northern Sea Route,deepen the economic and trade cooperation between China and Europe,and thus achieve mutual benefit and win-win results.