国际友城关系、制度环境与中国入境游增长

International Sister City Relationship,Institutional Environment and the Growth of China Inbound Tourism

运用基于“反事实”思想的倾向得分匹配法(PSM)考察中国与他国建立友城关系对中国入境游的影响。研究发现:与他国建立友城关系,可使中国接待的外国游客规模平均提高1.2%-2.6%,但该效应用存在他国经济水平、制度环境等方面的异质性。与经济发展水平较高、制度环境较好的国家建立的友城关系对中国入境游的作用,比与较低经济发展水平、较差制度环境国家建立的友城关系分别高出约45%-83%、10%-89%。上述发现有助于从国际友城关系功能定位、空间布局优化等角度挖掘其对中国入境游增长的效应。

This paper uses propensity score matching method(PSM),based on counterfactual thinking to investigate the influence of China's sister-city relationship with other countries on China's inbound tourism.It is found that establishment of sister-city relationship with other countries could increase the number of foreign tourists received by China by 1.2%-2.6%on average,but the effect is heterogeneous in the economic level and institutional environment of other countries.The effect of sister city relationships with countries with higher level of economic development and better institutional environment on China's inbound tourism is 45%-83%and 10%-89%higher than that with countries with lower level of economic development and poorer institutional environment,respectively.These findings are helpful to explore the effects of international sister cities on the growth of China's inbound tourism from the perspectives of functional positioning and spatial layout optimization.