美国国际投资净收益对美元国际地位的支撑作用

The Supporting Effect of U.S.Net International Investment Income on the International Status of the U.S.Dollar

21世纪以来,美元的国际地位并没有随美国国际经济地位下降、双赤字扩大和内外债务增长而衰落。基于1972—2020年数据进行VEC及门限回归分析显示,美国国际投资净收益及其占国民收入比率的不断提高在其中发挥了重要支撑作用,支撑美元国际地位的核心力量已由美国的实体经济实力转换为国际金融实力。预期未来数年美国国际投资净收益占比仍将维持在高位,其对美元的支撑作用依然强劲,还将受到美国低利率、弱美元、科技领先、国际货币联盟和数字货币竞争等政策的加固。因此,中国应采取"躲离美元"、提高国际投资效率、稳定人民币有效汇率和更加务实有效的人民币国际化等策略加以应对。

Since the beginning of the 21 st century,the international status of the U.S.dollar has not deteriorated in spite of a decline in the country’s international economic status,expansion of the country’s twin deficits,and growth in both domestic and foreign debt in the country.According to VEC and threshold regression analyses conducted using data from 1972 to 2020,this study found that U.S.net international investment income and the continuous increase in its proportion in relation to the country’s national income played a vital supporting role,where the core force supporting the international status of the U.S.dollar has shifted from the U.S.’s strength in the real economy to its strength in international finance.It is expected that the proportion of U.S.net international investment income will remain high in the coming years and continue to have a strong supporting effect on the U.S.dollar;furthermore,this will be reinforced by U.S.policies such as low interest rates,a weak U.S.dollar,technological leadership,international currency unions,and digital currency competition.Therefore,in response to the developments outlined above,China should adopt various strategies such as“pulling away from the U.S.dollar”,improving its international investment efficiency,stabilizing the effective exchange rate of the renminbi,and internationalizing it in a more pragmatic and effective manner.