美国货币政策、企业出口与杠杆增长差异

U.S. Monetary Policy, Corporate Exports, and Leverage Growth

以2003—2016年上市企业出口和财务数据为样本,研究发现美国货币宽松政策不仅对中国企业杠杆增长存在显著推动作用,而且对出口企业杠杆增长产生更大影响。原因在于,出口企业涉足国内外多个市场,拥有更稳定的现金流以及更广阔的融资市场来源,从而实现更大的杠杆增长。这一效应在出口收入更高、更加依赖长期债务融资、信贷收紧以及金融市场化程度更高的地区更显著。面对美国2020年"量化宽松",一方面银行部门需警惕国内企业,尤其出口企业出现新一轮杠杆增长和债务风险增加;另一方面政府可以通过引导出口企业贸易结构转变增加出口企业对美国货币政策冲击的抵抗能力。

Using the export and financial data of listed companies from 2003 to 2016 as research samples, this study found that the U.S.’s monetary easing policy not only had a significant catalytic effect on the leverage growth of Chinese companies but also had a greater impact on the leverage growth of export companies.These findings were observed because export companies had a foothold in multiple markets both at home and abroad, owned a more stable cash flow, and had wider access to financing markets, thereby achieving higher leverage growth.This effect was more significant in regions with higher export revenues, greater reliance on long-term debt financing and credit tightening, and a higher degree of financial marketization.In the face of “quantitative easing” in the U.S.in 2020,the banking sector should be wary of domestic companies, especially export companies that are seeing a new round of leverage growth and increased debt risks, whereas the government can increase the resistance of export companies to the impact of U.S.monetary policy by guiding the transformation of trade structure among export companies.