隧道工程运维成本PSO、BPNN、BIM控制方法研究

Research on the Control Methods of PSO,BPNN and BIM for the Operation and Maintenance Cost of Tunnel Engineering

研究目的:现行线性、滞后的定额测算运维成本模式并不能适应运维成本非线性、耦合的时序演变特点和规律。以大道梁隧道为实例验证运维成本估算与控制模型,以期提高维护成本测算的准确性和维修及时性,使得隧道工程结构设施能及时得到维护保养,从而有效降低运维事故发生率,保证实现和延长结构设计寿命和时限。在预测基础上,对运维成本动态发展进行优化控制,并辅以BIM技术可视化控制,从而达到降低并合理控制成本进而提高利润的目的。研究结论:(1)本文运用PSO聚类、BPNN方法预测,结果表明,项目实际值与预测值的误差满足精度要求;(2)结合PDCA方法动态优化控制运维成本,通过实例运行一年半以来效果分析,总维护成本超支0.87%,验证了隧道运维成本控制模型的准确性和有效性;(3)结合BIM技术,建立运维成本辅助控制系统,帮助管理人员三维可视地管控运维成本。

Research purposes:The current linear and lag model of measuring operation and maintenance cost can not adapt to the nonlinear and coupling characteristics and laws of the evolution of operation and maintenance cost.Taking Dadaoliang tunnel as an example,the operation and maintenance cost estimation and control model is verified in order to improve the accuracy of maintenance cost estimation and timeliness of maintenance,so that the tunnel engineering structural facilities can be maintained in time,thus effectively reducing the accident rate of operation and maintenance,and ensuring the realization and prolonging the design life and time limit of the structure.On the basis of the prediction,the dynamic development of operation and maintenance costs are optimized and controlled,supplemented by visual control of BIM technology,so as to achieve the purpose of reducing and reasonably controlling costs and improving profits.Research conclusions:(1)In this paper,PSO clustering and BPNN method are used to predict,and the results show that the errors between the actual value and the predicted value of the project meet the accuracy requirements.(2)Combined with PDCA method,the operation and maintenance cost is dynamically optimized and controlled.The total maintenance cost overrun is 0.87%after one and a half years of operation,which verifies the accuracy and effectiveness of the tunnel operation and maintenance cost control model.(3)Combined with BIM technology,the auxiliary control system of operation and maintenance costs was built to help managers manage and control the operation and maintenance costs in a three-dimensional visual way.