经济高质量发展的驱动因素与制约因素——基于省级面板数据的实证检验

Driving Factors and Restricting Factors of High-quality Development——Empirical Test Based on Provincial Panel Data

选用合适的评价指标体系,同时采用兼具横向和纵向可比性的综合评价方法,对各省区经济高质量发展的现状进行了综合评价与对比分析。通过构建空间面板主成分回归模型还原得到真实回归系数,对各省区经济高质量发展的驱动因素与制约因素进行了实证检验。结果表明,在2010-2018年期间,每个省区的经济发展质量均有明显提高,但处于高水平和较高水平区间的省份大部分来自东部沿海地区;互联网普及率、经济实力、人力资本水平和科技投入力度对经济高质量发展均有显著的积极影响;公共财政支出占比的提高对经济高质量发展有不利的影响;财政分权、基础设施水平、环境污染治理投资力度、金融规模和引进吸收经费比对经济高质量发展的影响不显著。

This paper selects an appropriate evaluation index system,and uses a comprehensive evaluation method with horizontal and vertical comparability to comprehensively evaluate and compare the current situation of high-quality economic development of each province.Then,through the construction of spatial panel principal component regression model,the real regression coefficient is obtained,and the driving factors and constraints of high-quality economic development of provinces are empirically tested.The results show that during 2010-2018,the quality of economic development of each province has improved significantly,but most of the provinces in the high level range are from the eastern coastal areas.Internet penetration,economic strength,human capital level and science and technology investment have significant positive effects on high-quality economic development;However,the increase of the proportion of public financial expenditure has a negative impact on the high-quality economic development.The impact of fiscal decentralization,infrastructure level,environmental pollution control investment,financial scale and the ratio of introduction and absorption of funds on the high-quality economic development is not significant.