基于多国数据的食物消费聚类与演化分析

Cluster and evolution analysis of food consumption based on multi-country data

为明晰食物消费类别,发现其演化特征规律,基于联合国粮农组织食物平衡表中1991—1995年和2015—2017年两个时期13种食物消费等数据,运用因子和聚类分析方法,得到5项因子,划分出7类食物消费类别,分析各类别食物消费变化及影响因素。结果表明:食物消费表现出典型地域特点,体现了各国经济发展差异。20年来各类别稻米、禽肉、糖人均消费普遍增长。处于温饱或小康阶段的类别,食物消费变化以谷物、蔬菜、水果等植物性食物消费增长为主,处于最富裕阶段的类别,居民薯类、油脂、红肉、水果消费普遍减少。期初消费对各种食物人均消费增长普遍具有负向影响,经济增长、本国生产则普遍表现出正向影响。经济增长对奶类、糖、蔬果消费带动较强,本国产量对蔬果、肉类、水产品等鲜活产品消费影响较大。城镇化、老龄化以及关税变化对不同食物消费影响存在较大差异。城镇化或带动油脂等高热量食物消费,降低蛋、奶、肉类等高蛋白食物以及蔬菜消费。而老龄化或引起糖、油脂消费减少,带动蛋类、红肉等食物的消费增长。

This study aimed to clarify the food consumption categories and find out the evolution characteristics.Based on the data of 13 kinds of food consumption in the food balance sheets of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations from 1991 to 1995 and 2015 to 2017,five factors and seven consumption categories were obtained using factor and cluster analysis.The changes of different categories and influencing factors of food consumption were also analyzed.The results showed typical regional characteristics,and reflected the differences in economic development among various countries.Over the past 20 years,the per capital consumption of rice,poultry and sugar had generally increased for all categories.For the categories at the food and clothing stage or well-off stage,the changes of food consumption mainly came from the increase of vegetable food such as grain,vegetable and fruit.While the categories of the richest stage reduced the consumption of potato,red meat,fruit,vegetable oil and animal fat.Initial consumption had negative impact on the growth of per capita consumption,while economic growth and domestic production generally showed a positive impact.Economic growth had a strong impact on the consumption of milk,sugar,fruits,vegetables,and domestic output had a greater impact on the consumption of fresh products such as fruits,vegetables,meat and aquatic products.The impact of urbanization,aging and tariff changes on different food consumption varied greatly.Urbanization might drive the consumption of high-calorie foods such as vegetable oil and animal fat,and reduce the consumption of high-protein foods such as eggs,milk,meat and vegetables.Aging might cause the consumption of sugar,vegetable oil and animal fat reduced,and drive the consumption of eggs,red meat and other food growth.