DSGE模型下碳税政策与厂商技术冲击的动态效应研究

Research on the dynamic effects of carbon tax policy and technological impact of manufacturers under DSGE model

在“双碳”目标背景下,构建包含经济与环境两系统的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,研究碳税政策冲击、清洁型厂商技术冲击与污染型厂商技术冲击对宏观经济与环境质量的动态效应。结果表明:上述3种冲击均能实现社会总产出水平提高与环境质量改善的“双赢”;厂商技术冲击对除自身以外的厂商产出存在抑制作用,且污染型厂商技术冲击对污染型厂商产出的促进作用大于清洁型厂商技术冲击对清洁型厂商产出的促进作用;投资对3种冲击的响应程度均大于消费的响应程度,这说明投资是我国经济增长的主要传导途径。

A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model with economic and environmental systems is constructed to study the dynamic effects of carbon tax policy impact,technology impact of clean firms and technology impact of polluting firms on macroeconomic and environmental quality under the background of“dual carbon”target.The results show that the above three impacts can achieve the“win-win”situation of total social output level and environmental quality.Technology shock of heterogeneous firms has an inhibiting effect on the output of other firms,and the positive effect of technology shock of polluting firms on the output of polluting firms is greater than that of clean firms.The response degree of investment to the three shocks is greater than the response degree of consumption,which indicates that investment is the main transmission way of China's economic growth.