基于排队论的广州港伶仃航道南沙口以南航段通过能力计算

Calculation of Through Capacity for the South Section of Lingding Channel of Guangzhou Port Based on Queuing Theory

为对广州港伶仃航道南沙口以南航段与广州港发展的匹配程度进行评估,以确定伶仃航道南沙口以南航段的饱和程度,本文引入排队论算法,综合考虑航道服务水平、港口系统的内部运行模式、船舶的航行安全等因素,运用科学方法确定两种船型作为本文代表船型,构建基于排队论的航道通过能力计算模型,并将该模型应用到广州港伶仃航道通过能力计算中,结果表明:模型计算结果与航道目前实际运行情况相符,验证了模型的有效性,对港口、引航等部门具有指导意义.

In order to evaluate the degree of matching between the southern part of the Lingding Channel of Guangzhou Port and the development of Guangzhou Port,and to determine the degree of saturation of the southern part of the Lingding Channel,this paper introduces the queuing theory algorithm,which comprehensively considers the service level of the channel and the internal port system.Based on factors such as operation mode and navigational safety of ships,scientific methods are used to determine two ship types as the representative ship types in this article,and a channel capacity calculation model based on queuing theory is built.The calculation result of the model is consistent with the current actual operation of the channel,which verifies the validity of the model,and has guiding significance for the port,pilotage and other departments.