我国主要农产品贸易中虚拟耕地资源流的驱动因素研究

Study on Driving Factors of Virtual Cultivated Land Resource Flow in Main Agricultural Products Trade in China

本文在对当前虚拟耕地资源相关研究进行梳理和分析的基础上,从社会、经济、政治、政策、自然、生态等六个维度对我国主要农产品贸易中虚拟耕地资源贸易流的影响因素进行系统分析,进而收集了1996—2018年我国主要农产品虚拟耕地资源贸易相关数据,并利用多元线性回归分析方法对我国主要农产品贸易中虚拟耕地资源贸易流的影响因素进行实证分析。研究结果表明:代表农业生产投入要素的乡村人口、有效灌溉面积、粮食单位面积产量是虚拟耕地资源净进口的负向驱动因素,农户固定资产投资额是虚拟耕地资源净进口的正向驱动因素;代表需求要素的城镇人均可支配收入和我国主要农产品出口量是虚拟耕地资源净进口的逆向驱动因素;代表其他要素的国内生产总值指数是虚拟耕地资源净进口的正向驱动因素。此外,本文还提出要试点实施虚拟耕地资源贸易战略、充分发挥市场机制的决定作用、严格界定好“政府-市场”的权力边界等政策建议。

As one of the important measures to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of land resources,virtual cultivated land resources are affected and restricted by many factors.Based on the analysis of the current research on virtual farmland resources,this paper systematically analyzes the influencing factors of virtual farm-land resource trade flows in China's main agricultural product trade from six dimensions:society,economy,politics,policy,nature,and ecology.Then it collects the relevant data of virtual farmland resource trade of China's main agricultur-al products from 1996 to 2018,and conducts an empirical analysis of influencing factors of virtual farmland resource trade flow in China's main agricultural product trade by using multiple linear regression analysis.The research results show that rural population,effective irrigated area,and output per unit area of grain representing the input factors of agricultural pro-duction are the negative driving factors of net imports of virtual cultivated land resources,and the fixed asset investment of farmers is the positive driving factor of net imports of virtual cultivated land resources;urban per capita disposable income representing demand factors and China's main agricultural product exports are the reverse driving factors of net imports of virtual cultivated land resources;the GDP index representing other factors is the positive driving factor of net imports of virtual cultivated land resources.In addition,this article proposes policy suggestions for pilot implementation of virtual farmland resource trade strategies,giving full play to the decisive role of market mechanisms,and strictly defining the“government-market”power boundary.