中国对美加征反制关税的进口贸易效应--基于双重差分模型的检验

The Effects of China’s Tariff Countermeasure against the US on Chinese Import Trade:A Test Based on the Difference in Difference Model

本文以2017—2019年HS8位码进口品数据为样本,利用双重差分模型系统评估了对美加征反制关税对中国进口贸易的影响及其作用机制。实证发现,对美加征反制关税显著降低了中国自美进口额,尤其对自美农食产品、非GVC贸易及一般贸易进口额的负向影响更大。从影响渠道看,第一轮关税反制通过降低自美进口量和平均进口价格对自美进口额产生负面影响,而第二轮关税反制仅通过降低自美进口量对自美进口额产生影响。第一、三轮反制关税成本由美国对华出口企业及中国的进口商和消费者来共同承担,而第二轮反制关税成本全部转嫁给了中国的进口商和消费者。中国从其他国家(地区)的进口替代可有效抵消由第二轮关税反制所引致的自美进口额及进口量下降,但无法完全抵消由第一轮关税反制所引致的自美进口额及进口量下降。此外,加征幅度越大的关税反制,其对自美进口额、进口量及平均进口价格的负面影响就越大。

In this paper,based on the HS eight-digit import data from 2017 to 2019,we use the difference in difference(DID)model to comprehensively assess the effect of China’s tariff countermeasure against the US on Chinese import trade and its mechanism.Empirical results show that the imposition of tariffs on the US has significantly reduced China’s gross import value from the US.In particular,it has a greater negative impact on the import value of agricultural food products,non-GVC trade and general trade from the US.From the perspective of influence channels,the first round of tariff countermeasures has a negative impact on the import from the US by reducing the import quantities and the average import price,while the second round of tariff countermeasures impacts the total import from the US only by reducing the import quantities.The costs of the first and third rounds of tariff countermeasures are shared by US exporters and Chinese importers and consumers,while the costs of the second round of tariff imposition are all passed on to Chinese importers and consumers.China’s import substitution from other countries(regions)can effectively offset the decrease of import value and import quantities from the US caused by the second round of tariff countermeasures,but cannot completely offset the decrease of import value and import quantities from the US caused by the first round of tariff countermeasures.In addition,the larger the tariff increases,the greater the negative impact on the value and quantities of imports,and the average import price from the US is.