中国城镇新增住房需求规模的测算与分析

Estimation and Analysis of New Demand for Housing in Urban China

本文围绕城镇家庭户自然增长、城镇家庭户机械增长和城镇存量住房拆除三项需求来源,设计了基于人口普查等公开统计数据定量测算城镇新增住房需求规模的系统性方法,对2001—2010年和2011—2015年间全国和各省份城镇新增住房需求规模进行测算与分析。在此期间新增住房供需关系经历了从基本均衡向供过于求的变化,同时存量住房拆除引致的被动需求取代城镇家庭户自然增长和机械增长引致的主动需求,成为新增住房需求的最主要来源。东、中、西部省份在新增需求规模、新增供需比、需求结构等方面表现出明显差异。本文还进一步对2021—2030年的发展趋势进行了定量预测。由于三项需求来源均趋于下降,2021—2025年和2026—2030年间全国年均城镇新增住房需求规模预计将较2011—2015年间分别下降33%和53%。本文设计的城镇新增住房需求规模测算方法和预测思路能够为各级政府"十四五"住房发展规划编制、房地产企业战略制定等提供参考。

This paper identifies three major sources of new housing demand in urban China,namely,natural growth of urban households,migrant growth of urban households,and demolition of existing housing.Based on this decomposition,a systematic method is designed to quantitatively measure the new housing demand in urban China based on the population census data.Using this method,this paper estimates the annual amount of new housing demand in urban China during 2001—2010 and 2011—2015 both on the national and provincial levels.The results show that during this period,the relationship between new housing supply and demand changes from basic balance to oversupply.At the same time,the passive demand caused by demolition replaces the active demand caused by natural growth and migrant growth and becomes the main source of new housing demand.The eastern,central,and western provinces show significant differences in the demand scale,the supply-demand ratio,and the demand structure.This paper also provides a quantitative prediction on the future trend of new housing demand in 2021—2030.Since all the three sources of new housing demand are subject to a substantial decline,the national annual amount of new housing demand is expected to decrease by 33%during 2021—2025 and 53%during 2026—2030,compared with the annual amount in 2011—2015.The estimation and prediction methods established in this paper can provide direct support for governments’preparation of housing development planning in the"14 th Five-year Plan Period"and the strategy-making of real estate firms.