摘要
不同于传统(Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed)SEIR流行病传播动力学模型,本文在近期研究的Varying Coefficient Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Diagnosed-Removed(vSEIdR)模型基础上加上人口迁徙(Migration)模块,设计开发了vSEIdRm模型,该模型考虑了跨区域人口迁徙对疫情传播的影响,并允许流行病传播参数随时间变化。本文首先对人口迁移数据进行统计分析,建立其与各省新冠肺炎疫情发展的联系。之后,基于vSEIdRm模型估计了疫情初期各省份来自武汉的输入病例数,并定量刻画了离汉交通管控的效果。研究结果显示,离汉交通管控措施有效地减少了各省份的疫情规模。
Different from the traditional SEIR(Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed)epidemic model,based on the v SEIdR(Varying Coefficient Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Diagnosed-Removed)model in our previous study,in this paper we add a population migration compartment and propose the v SEIdRm model,which takes the effect of cross-regional migration on the epidemic into consideration and allows the parameters to vary with time.We first conduct statistical analysis on the population migration data and connect the migration with the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic.Further,based on the new model,we estimate the would-be imported cases to the provinces from Wuhan in the absence of Wuhan lockdown which quantifies the effect of the Wuhan lockdown.Our results show that the Wuhan lockdown effectively reduces the scale of the epidemic in other provinces.
作者
顾嘉
陈松蹊
董倩
邱宇谋
Gu Jia;Chen Songxi;Dong Qian;Qiu Yumou
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第9期114-127,共14页
Statistical Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“面向管理决策大数据分析的理论与方法”(92046021)
“变系数流行病学模型的统计推断”(12071013)
“面向儿童脑发育障碍性疾病的神经机制建模与辅助诊疗算法”(12026607)。