经济政策不确定性与资本结构动态调整

Uncertainty of Economic Policy and Dynamic Adjustment of Capital Structure

在日益复杂的经济环境中,国家为了熨平经济波动而制定的经济政策可能会对微观经济主体产生影响。资本结构是企业经营过程中的一项重要指标,影响着企业的正常运作。本文以沪深A股上市公司2008-2019年度的数据为基础和样本,建立资本结构调整模型,用于探讨宏观经济政策的不确定性对微观企业的资本结构及资本结构调整速度的影响,并对其进行异质性的分析。实证的结果表明,经济政策不确定性会降低企业的资本结构比例,随着经济政策不确定的提高大规模企业的资本结构调整速度高于小规模企业的,西部地区企业的资本结构调整速度高于东部且高于中部地区的,非国有企业的资本结构调整速度高于国有企业的资本结构调整速度。本文的研究为今后经济政策的制定具有理论基础及依据。

In an increasingly complex economic environment,China's economic policies formulated to smooth out economic fluctuations may have an impact on microeconomic entities.The capital structure is an important indicator in the business process of a company,which affects the normal operation of the company.Based on the data and samples of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2008 to 2019,this article establishes a capital structure adjustment model to explore the impact of macroeconomic policy uncertainty on the capital structure of micro-enterprises and the speed of capital structure adjustment,and makes an analysis of its heterogeneity.The empirical results show that economic policy uncertainty will reduce the proportion of capital structure of enterprises.With the increase of economic policy uncertainty,the capital structure adjustment speed of large-scale enterprises is higher than that of small-scale enterprises,and the speed of capital structure adjustment of enterprises in the western region is higher than that in the east and in the central region,the adjustment speed of the capital structure of non-state-owned enterprises is higher than that of state-owned enterprises.The research in this article has a theoretical foundation and basis for the formulation of economic policies in the future.