不同时段降雨输入对区域洪水预报精度的影响探讨

Discussion about impact of rainfall input in different periods on regional flood forecast accuracy

定量分析了大凌河流域3 h、6 h、9 h三个时段降雨输入对区域洪水预报精度的影响。分析表明:在同一组水文模型参数下,降雨输入时段越大,洪水预报精度越低;在不同组水文模型参数下,降雨输入时段对洪水预报精度影响程度较低。研究成果对于指制定区域洪水预报方案具有重要参考意义。

Quantitative analysis was made on the impact of rainfall input of three periods of 3h,6h and 9h on the accuracy of regional flood forecast for Daling River basin.The results of analysis show that under the same set of hydrological model parameters,the longer the rainfall input period is,the lower the flood forecast accuracy;under different sets of hydrological model parameters,the rainfall input period has less impact on the flood forecast accuracy.The research results have important reference significance for formulating regional flood forecasting programs.