围填海工程的经济影响评价逻辑、指标与测度

Evaluation Logic,Index and Measurement of Economic Influence of Reclamation Projects

文章基于已有实证研究甄别围填海工程经济影响评价的逻辑,系统选取评价指标及其数据集成方法。研究发现:(1)围填海工程经济影响发生路径是土地增量供应产业与城镇利用,触发企业群集与产业结构优化。(2)围填海工程经济影响评价逻辑有逻辑框架法、主客观综合分析框架两类,逻辑框架法常用投入—产出模型具体化,主客观综合分析框架常用专家评价模型具体化。(3)围填海工程经济影响评价指标分为量化类指标、定性类指标,前者可细分为实际项目产生数据及国民经济损益指标,后者可细分为经济定性指标及辅助性指标。比较表明:投入—产出模型与专家评价模型各具有一定的特点与优势。前者根据具体研究区构建评价指标,量化测算经济影响值,测算过程呈现"深而偏"特征,具有较强后续操作能力;后者充分考虑评价对象具体内容,兼顾直接经济损益与间接经济损益,采用"主观赋值+客观量化"方式测算。两类影响评价测算路径同样都存在测算关键点与难点:投入—产出模型需要加强对各产出指标测算及成本测算相关参数获取准确性,专家评价模型需要关注主观赋权的客观性提升与相关普查数据的获取。

Based on the existing empirical research,the article discriminates the evaluation logic of economic influence of reclamation projects,and systematically selects the evaluation indexes and data integration methods.The research finds that:(1) The path of economic influence of reclamation project is land incremental supply industry and urban utilization,triggering enterprise cluster and industrial structure optimization.(2) The evaluation logic of the economic influence of reclamation projects includes a logical framework method and subjective and objective comprehensive analysis framework.The logical framework method is usually concretized by the input-output model,and the subjective and objective comprehensive analysis framework is usually concretized by the expert evaluation model.(3) The economic influence evaluation indexes of reclamation projects are divided into quantitative indexes and qualitative indexes.The former can be subdivided into actual project generated data and national economic profit and loss indexes,and the latter can be subdivided into economic qualitative indexes and auxiliary indexes.The comparison shows that:The input-output model and the expert evaluation model have their own characteristics and advantages.The former constructs evaluation indexes according to the specific research area and quantitatively calculates the economic influence value.The calculation process presents the characteristics of "deep and partial",and has strong follow-up operation ability;The latter fully considers the specific content of the evaluation object,takes into account the direct and indirect economic profits and losses,and adopts the method of "subjective assignment + objective quantification".There are crucial points and difficulties in both measurements of the two types of influence evaluation measurement paths:the input-output model needs to strengthen the accuracy of the measurement of each output index and the relevant parameters of cost measurement,and the expert evaluation model needs to pay attention to the improvement of the objectivity of subjective weighting and the acquisition of relevant census data.