基于三参数区间泛灰数的技术站能力表示与估计方法

Representation and Estimation Method for Technical Station Capacity Based on Three-Parameter Interval Gray Numbers

铁路技术站能力是衡量其运输生产效能的重要指标,为了体现能力的伸缩性并提高能力测定的精度,分析了三参数区间与泛灰数应用于能力表示的适用性,通过三参数区间保证能力上下界的取值范围,引入泛灰数来降低能力运算可能带来的区间扩张,并根据作业系统的状态界定了收缩、平衡和松弛3种能力.通过多种区间估计方法的比对,采用JAB(Jackknife-after-Bootstrap)区间估计方法对铁路技术站能力的伸缩范围进行测定.郑州北编组站的实例分析表明:相较于原有的能力定值表示方法,基于三参数区间泛灰数的能力表示与估计方法测定的区间宽度更小,区间位置更加精确,当置信水平为95%时,置信区间为[9.6933,10.2043],区间宽度为0.511;当置信水平为90%时,置信区间为[9.7358,10.1653],区间宽度为0.429;郑州北站通过能力的收缩度为0.99,松弛度为1.01,改编能力的收缩度为0.94,松弛度为1.07,说明能力测定结果呈现一定的松弛和收缩现象.

Capacity is an important index to measure the production efficiency of railway technical station,in order to reflect capacity scalability and improve measurement accuracy,the applicability of three parameter interval and universal grey number for capacity representation was analyzed.The three parameter interval was used to guarantee the capacity value range of upper and lower bounds,the universal grey number was introduced to reduce the possible interval expansion caused by capacity calculation,and then the concepts of contraction capacity,balance capacity and relaxation capacity were proposed based on the operation state.After comparing various interval estimation methods,Jackknife-after-Bootstrap(JAB)interval estimation method was used to determine the lower and upper limit on capacity.A case of Zhengzhoubei Marshalling Station shows that the interval width determined by the capacity representation and estimation method based on three-parameter interval gray number is smaller,and the interval position is more accurate compared with the original fixed value representation on capacity.The calculated confidence interval is[9.6933,10.2043],the interval width is 0.511 when the confidence level is 95%;Similarly,when it is 90%,the calculated confidence interval is[9.7358,10.1653],and the interval width is 0.429.The contraction of carrying capacity in Zhengzhoubei railway station is 0.99,the relaxation is 1.01,and the contraction of resorting capacity is 0.94,the relaxation is 1.07,which indicates that the capacity measurement results show certain relaxation and contraction phenomenon.