农业保险缓解相对贫困了吗?——基于“城乡收入差距悖论”视角

Has Agricultural Insurance Alleviated Relative Poverty?——From the Perspective of “the Paradox of Urban and Rural Income Gap”

基于2012—2019年中国31个省区、直辖市的面板数据,对农业保险缓解相对贫困的效用进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,在农业保险较高的保费水平与较低的保障水平的共同作用下,发展农业保险可能会扩大城乡收入差距,从而产生"城乡收入差距悖论"。其中,农业保险灾前增加保费会使城乡收入差距扩大,不利于缓解相对贫困;灾后提高赔付会使城乡收入差距缩小,有利于缓解相对贫困,且农业保险灾后对城乡收入差距具有门槛特征。当赔付水平较低时,农业保险灾后会缩小城乡收入差距。但随着赔付水平提高,此优势逐渐消损,直至扩大城乡收入差距。随着农业保险赔付的增加,农民消费呈扩大趋势,且其消费主要表现为衣食住行等生存型消费,这是产生"城乡收入差距悖论"的原因之一。未来应采取培养精算人才科学定价保费、提升农业保险赔付水平、加大对农村的资金投入等措施,使农业保险灾前和灾后均为缓解相对贫困发挥积极作用。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces(including municipalities directly under the central government and autonomous regions)in China from 2012 to 2019,this paper conducts an empirical analysis on the effectiveness of agricultural insurance in alleviating relative poverty.The results show that under the joint action of higher premium level and lower security level of agricultural insurance,the income gap between urban and rural areas may be widened,resulting in"urban-rural income gap paradox".Among them,the increase of insurance premium before the disaster will widen the income gap between urban and rural areas,which is not conducive to alleviating relative poverty;increasing compensation after the disaster will narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas,which is conducive to alleviating relative poverty,and agricultural insurance has threshold characteristics on urban-rural income gap after the disaster.When the compensation level is low,agricultural insurance will narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas after the disaster.However,with the increase of compensation level,this advantage gradually diminishes until the income gap between urban and rural areas is widened.With the increase of agricultural insurance compensation,farmers′consumption tends to expand,and its consumption is mainly manifested in subsistence consumption such as clothing,food,housing and transportation,which is one of the reasons for the"paradox of income gap between urban and rural areas".In the future,measures should be taken to train actuarial talents to price premium scientifically,improve the compensation level of agricultural insurance,and increase capital investment in rural areas,so as to make agricultural insurance play a positive role in alleviating relative poverty before and after the disaster.