消费者心理状态改变对商品线上交易的影响研究

The Effects of Consumers′ Psychological Status Changes on Online Commodity Transaction

消费者心理状态的改变通过电子商务平台中的评价机制体现出来,这些机制从理论上都能一定程度地缓解线上交易的信息不对称问题,促成更多的有效交易。通过构建不完全信息动态博弈模型提出研究假设,然后利用淘宝网的五种商品数据通过OLS和Tobit模型两种方法进行实证检验。研究认为:消费者心理状态改变导致的在线累计评价数对各类商品近30天的销量均有显著的正向影响,对于价值高的商品或价值居中但体验性高的商品,消费者心理状态改变导致的在线带图评论数越高,商品销量越高;追加评论数越高,商品销量越低,消费者心理状态改变导致的在线带图评论数和追加评论数越高对商品销量的偏效应在低价值或低体验性商品中不明显。

The change of consumers′psychological state is reflected by the evaluation mechanism in the e-commerce platform,which can theoretically alleviate the information asymmetry of online transactions to a certain extent and facilitate more effective transactions.This paper proposes the research hypothesis by constructing the incomplete information dynamic game model,and then conducts empirical tests by using OLS and Tobit models of five commodity data from Taobao.com.According to the research,the cumulative online comments caused by the change of consumers′psychological status have a significant positive impact on the sales volume of all kinds of commodities in the past 30 days.For the commodities with high value or the commodities with high value but high experience,the higher the online comments caused by the change of consumers′psychological status,the higher the sales volume of the commodities.The higher the number of additional comments,the lower the sales volume,and the impact of the higher number of online graphic comments and additional comments caused by the change of consumers′psychological state on the sales volume of goods is not obvious in low-value or low-experience goods.