黄河流域水资源供需新态势与对策

New situation and countermeasures of water resources supply and demand in the Yellow River Basin

黄河流域属资源型缺水地区,水资源时空分布不均衡、与经济发展布局不匹配的矛盾长期存在。针对这一突出问题,分析了近30年黄河径流演变及流域供用水变化特征,预测未来一个时期黄河天然径流量将进一步衰减到460亿m^(3),2035年流域总需水量增长到628.2亿m^(3),流域缺水量将达153.2亿m^(3)。水资源短缺长期制约流域经济社会高质量发展。解决黄河水资源短缺问题,近期可通过实施深度节水、优化配置格局、强化流域管理等措施来缓解,从长远来看,根本途径在于按照“补纲、张目、固结”的思路加快构建黄河水网,推进水资源集约安全利用。

The Yellow River Basin is a resource-based water-deficient area,and the distribution of water resources is unbalanced in time and space.Aiming the prominent problem,the characteristics of the evolution of the Yellow River runoff and the changes in water supply in the basin were analyzed in the past 30 years,and it is predicted that the natural runoff of the Yellow River will be further attenuated to 46 billion m^(3) in the future,and the total water demand of the Yellow River will be increased to 62.82 billion m^(3),the water shortage in the basin will reach 15.32 billion m^(3) in 2035.The shortage of water resources has long constrained the high-quality economic and social development of the river basin.To solve the problem of water shortage in the Yellow River,measures such as implementing measures such as deep water saving,optimizing the allocation pattern,and strengthening river basin management can be implemented in the near future.The fundamental way is to speed up the construction of the Yellow River water network and promote the intensive and safe use of water resources.